Thinking

Ideas worth
sitting with.

Google Ads, YouTube, agentic AI, and marketing strategy — written to connect dots, not confirm what you already know. The essays here feed the operating manuals in the Frameworks collection and the live experiments in the Lab.

Decision Economics · Measurement · New

Proof Is the New Flex — And It Has a Unit.

Cannes declared the AI-novelty era over: prove the result, don't just use the tool. But proof is a ratio, and the industry forgot the denominator. The denominator is the decision — here's how to make proof countable.

Kyle Schwietz ·
Measurement · Google Ads · New

What Are Qualified Future Conversions? QFC, Explained.

Google's new metric credits campaigns with conversions that haven't happened yet — and it's headed for Meridian. How QFC works, where the line is, and the pre-QFC baseline to freeze while there's still a "before."

Kyle Schwietz ·
Retail · Agentic Commerce · New

Universal Cart: Cost Per Cart When the Cart Isn't Yours.

The cart was the last first-party event before revenue. Universal Cart moves it inside Search, YouTube, Gmail, and Gemini — and takes the Retail Decision Stack's ground truth with it. The fix: move it to the order.

Kyle Schwietz ·
Measurement · Agentic AI · New

You Can't Let the Optimizer Own the Evidence Layer

Google now predicts your conversions with Gemini and feeds them into the same Meridian MMM meant to verify your spend. The optimizer and the auditor share one brain — and independence just became a setting you have to defend.

Kyle Schwietz ·
Decision Economics · Rate of Learning · New

Decision Latency: The Rate-of-Learning Metric That Finally Has a Number

AI made the machine faster and left your org as the slow part of the loop. The time between a signal arriving and a budget moving is now measurable — in days and in dollars — and it's the metric nobody is paid to lower.

Kyle Schwietz ·
Google Ads · Signal Architecture · New

The Sealed Auction: Google Search Goes Opaque in Q3 2026.

AI Max for Search, the SQR shift, and the prose-input change ship together this quarter. One prediction layer, three surfaces, one sealed auction — and one decision every marketing team has to make before September.

Kyle Schwietz ·
FinTech · Counter-Intuitive

Cost Per Funded Account, Not Cost Per Lead.

Consumer FinTechs run on Cost Per Lead. The business runs on funded, retained accounts. The space between is where neobanks burn working capital chasing the wrong applicant — every quarter.

Kyle Schwietz ·
Retail · Counter-Intuitive

From Cost Per Click to Cost Per Cart.

Retail marketing runs on Cost Per Click. The business runs on retained margin per cart. The Retail Decision Stack rewrites the KPI hierarchy for an AI-mediated funnel — for DTC, big-box, and CPG.

Kyle Schwietz ·
Health Insurance · Counter-Intuitive

Cost Per Member-Year, Not Cost Per Enrollment.

Health plans run their marketing on Cost Per Enrollment. The business runs on member-years. That gap is where the budget gets spent on the wrong audiences, the wrong creative, and the wrong channels — every AEP, every cycle.

Kyle Schwietz ·
Google Ecosystem · Counter-Intuitive

Performance Max Isn't a Campaign Type. It's a Signal Feedback Loop.

The five signal layers that determine whether Performance Max compounds or fails — and the audit checklist most teams skip.

Kyle Schwietz ·
Measurement · Counter-Intuitive

Your GA4 Setup Is Quietly Lying to You — A Teardown

Default attribution, modeled conversions, consent-mode gaps, and the specific places your data is over-crediting some channels and burying others. With the audit checklist.

Kyle Schwietz ·
Measurement · Counter-Intuitive

Last-Click Attribution Is Dead. Meridian MMM Is What Replaces It.

Google's open-source Marketing Mix Model isn't just a measurement tool. It's the confidence infrastructure that lets enterprise teams finally stop defending budgets with broken attribution.

Kyle Schwietz ·
P&L Translation · The CFO Conversation

Marketing on the P&L: From CAC to Enterprise Value

A marketing decision doesn't stop at marketing. It moves through CAC, LTV/CAC, working capital, and the multiple the market pays — the chain most teams never draw end-to-end.

Kyle Schwietz ·
Google Ecosystem

Full-Funnel Marketing Within Google: What It Actually Means to Run the Whole System

Most organizations are running Google's products as separate channels. The ones pulling ahead are running the whole system.

Kyle Schwietz ·
Agentic AI

What Agentic AI Actually Means for Marketing Teams in 2026

Beyond prompts and chatbots — AI that acts, decides, and executes across systems. What this means for how marketing gets done.

Kyle Schwietz ·
Agentic AI

Stop Building for One LLM. Build for Agentic.

Most teams are locking their workflows to a single model. That's the wrong bet. Here's how to build infrastructure that survives the next model shift.

Kyle Schwietz ·
Origin Story

Why I Started Uncommon Move — and What Move 37 Has to Do With It

In 2016, AlphaGo played a move no human would make. That single moment explains where AI and marketing are heading — and why most teams are still playing the old way.

Kyle Schwietz ·

Get the thinking first.

The launch issue argues that every marketing KPI measures activity, not decisions.
Sign up to get it in your inbox first. Sent only when there's a real argument worth making.